The final episode of the Skywalker Saga opened in theaters starting Thursday night and will be dominating the top spot for several weeks to come. The $175 million weekend estimate that J.J. Abrams’ film put up this weekend will have some takes from both the half-empty and the half-full camps depending on their investment. Those hoping for disappointment are bound to be themselves as the film is a true-blue moneymaker and is going to find a home amongst the all-timers. But we are here to break down both glasses and see which one is fuller.

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For starters, there are two areas whereEpisode IXis not looking like a champion. One is with critics who have been decidedly mixed on the film resulting in a 57% on the Tomatometer; the second-lowest of the nine-episode Saga ahead of justThe Phantom Menace(53%.)The Force AwakensandThe Last Jediare amongst the top four with 93% & 91%, respectively. Another that may buck the trend ofStar Warshistory is the direct performance of the sequels. The box office per each trilogy has followed a pretty specific pattern.The first film is a major blockbuster.The 1977 originalbecame the highest-grossing film of all-time up until 1982’sE.T..The Phantom Menacein 1999 was second only toTitanicon the all-time scale andThe Force Awakensstill currently holds the crown for the #1 film in domestic box office history. The second film in each trilogy then dipped.The Empire Strikes Backmade 31.9% less.Attack of the Clones34.6% andThe Last Jedi33.8%. But thenReturn of the Jedimade $19 million more andRevenge of the Sithmade $70 million more.The Rise of Skywalkerhas already begun with a disadvantage opening with $175 million compared toThe Last Jedi’s $220 million start.

But then consider whereThe Rise of Skywalkeralready has staked out in lists. It is the 12thhighest opening in history (and the 3rdhighest in December behind the previous twoStar Wars.) It had the 5thbest total in Thursday previews with $40 million behindEpisodes VII&VIIIas well as the finalAvengersandHarry Potterfilms and 6thhighest Friday opening ever (which includes Thurs previews) withInfinity Warbeing in that mix. Word-of-mouth will now determine if those rankings remain consistent the next few weeks.?That film’s 10-day total was the 4thbest at the time (7thbest currently), it still has the 4thbest 17-&-24-day total ever and remains the 8thhighest-grossing domestic film of all-time and 13thall-time worldwide with $1.33 billion.

The Rise of Skywalkershould hit the billion mark. (It is over $374 million worldwide in 3.5 days.)Rogue Oneopened to $155 million and reached $500 million so that milestone right now is also likely to makeROSjust the 15thfilm ever to achieve that goal. They’ve already achieved that globally. $650 million is likely the goal Disney and Lucasfilm would have wanted to hit domestically, but that now seems quite out of reach.The Last Jediwas down to $23.7 million in its 4thweekend and that could be the one (Jan. 10-12, 2020) whereROSrelinquishes its #1 spot to perhaps the expansion of Sam Mendes’ WWI film,1917.

Rotten Returns:?Eldritch Horror?CatsScratched At Box Office

After months of sniping at its first trailer and a week of critical lambasting, Tom Hooper’s adaptation of Andrew Lloyd Webber’sCats?($6.5 million) appears to be an immediate bust. Conservatively the film is budgeted at $80 million to as much as $95 million (the number could be even higher) so any single digit opening is going to cause concern for those who bankrolled it. They may be looking at those who ponied up the $84 million to makeThe Greatest Showmantwo years ago when it started with just an $8.8 million opening weekend after a $4.5 million lead-in from its Wednesday Christmas opening. They certainly sighed relief when it went on to gross over $174 million. Hooper’s backers may be coughing up hairballs.Catsdoes not likely have a 19x multiple. That is just a $1,923 per-theater-average which puts it in the category ofFrom Justin to Kelly($1,357 PTA) andNewsies($1,008 PTA).The Greatest Showmanalso had just a $2,929 PTA that opening weekend, but word-of-mouth boosted that number and it did not dip lower until its eighth week.Sweeney Toddand 2004’sThe Phantom of the Operamanaged to get themselves over $50 million, so maybe there is still a Christmas miracle for the critically-lambasted (19%) effort, even as a goof or a dare. Either way, we are likely to not see a big-screen version ofStarlight Expressanytime soon.

The Top 10 and Beyond:?Jumanji?Softening,?Bombshell?Near-Bombs

In these times as one should expect moviegoers do not exactly want a mix of politics with their eggnog. Last year’sVicemade over $47 million, but that was bolstered a bit by its awards run and was ultimately morethenthannow. Despite lining up critically withVice’s 66%, the 65%-ratedBombshelldid not turn too many heads in theaters this weekend. Starting with $5 million and?expanding into 1,480 theaters, Jay Roach’s film about the sexual harassment scandal at Fox News, made $5.8 million. That is just a $3,429 per-theater-average compared toVice’s $3,181 in 2,442 theaters in its first weekend. But that was also after?its $9.9 million three day headstart opening on Christmas through Dec. 27.Bombshelldebuted with a solid $319,157 in four theaters last week but could fade much faster than Adam McKay’s film.

Last week’s short-lived #1,Jumanji: The Next Level, became the 23rdfilm to open in December and gross $100 million in its first ten days.Marley and Meis the only film on that list to fail to reach $200 million. (It grossed $143.15 million.) On the other handMarley(which was a Christmas Day release) grossed $24.26 million in its second weekend.The Next Levelfell 56% to $26 million which is the second lowest on that list of 23. The only December films since 1985 to gross less than $30 million in their second weekend and reach $200 million were 2005’sKing KongandAlvin and the Chipmunks. So it is possibleJumanji?is fading faster than we may have expected. It is up to $312 million worldwide.

Disney’sFrozen IIrose to over $386 million this weekend. That is the 18thbest total ever after 31 days of release and is still $15 million ahead of the pace of all-time November opening champ,The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, in that period and had a fifth weekend around $4 million better. So with solid daily numbers over the Christmas vacation the film is likely headed for a final gross between $440-450 million. Worldwide the film has grossed $1.103 billion is now the 29thhighest-grossing film ever and will be in the Top 20 when it leaves theaters. Rian Johnson’sKnives Outis now fully in the driver’s seat to pass $100 million. Every November release to gross $85 million after 26 days have done it and that includesFord v Ferrariwhich did it this weekend. Johnson’s murder mystery is up to nearly $90 million domestic and over $185 million worldwide.FvFis at $193 million globally, falling well short of the $250 million it needed to recoup its costs.Knivesis looking to become Lionsgate’s second most profitable film of the year afterJohn Wick 3.

Finally, still in limited release,Uncut Gemswith Adam Sandler fell to $235,000 from last week’s stellar fourth-best-ever opening in five theaters ($537,242). It is still in those five theaters and that is still a very solid total.Zero Dark Thirtymade $316,415 (fallen from $417,150) during its second week in five venues.The Iron LadyandI, Tonyamoved from 4 into 5 theaters and grossed $176,374 & $171,279, respectfully. Gems’ gross was nearly as much as Terrence Malick’sA Hidden Lifemade ($250,000) when it expanded into 106 theaters this weekend. The real test will be when A24 moves the Safdie’s film into wide release on Christmas Day.

This Time Last Year:?Aquaman?On Its Way To Highest-Grossing DCEU Movie

Christmas Eve and Day were on Monday and Tuesday last year and the weekend leading up to them was flooded with new releases. The big winner was James Wan’sAquamanwhich may have started with one of DC’s lowest openings in $67.87 million, it nevertheless became their highest-grossing film to date. Disney’sMary Poppins Returnswas coming off of a Wednesday opening and finished in second place with $23.52 million. Transformers spinoff,Bumblebee, got the best reviews of the whole series but began with a paltry $21.65 million.?This year’s Top Ten grossed an estimated $239.64 Million and averaged 67.2% with critics.

On the Vine:?Little Women,?1917?Among?Slew of Awards Hopefuls

Christmas Day has a little something for everyone. Maybe even something big given the critical response to many of them. Greta Gerwig’s follow-up toUncut GemsLady Birdis the latest adaptation ofLittle Womenand it has already become one of the best-reviewed films of the year and quite the player during awards season. That is likely to be matched by a strong performance at the box office over the holidays and onwards towards the Oscars. Sam Mendes’1917is also drawing major praise from critics and fellow filmmakers alike. Will his “one-take” war adventure be equally embraced by moviegoers? For families there is the animatedSpies in Disguiseis drawing enough likes to be on the right side of the Tomatometer but can it be a late-season substitute for those not choosing betweenStar Wars, JumanjiandFrozen II? We’ll also be looking at the limited releases of justice drama,Just Mercy, with Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx and Brie Larson as well as seeing howreacts to an expansion.

The Full Top 10: December 20-22Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker(2019)57%–$175.50 million ($175.50 million total)Jumanji: The Next Level(2019)71%–?$26.12 million ($101.93 million total)Frozen II(2019)77%–$12.30 million ($386.53 million total)Cats(2019)18%–?$6.50 million ($6.50 million total)Knives Out(2019)97%–$6.12 million ($89.57 million total)Bombshell(2019)65%–$5.07 million ($5.48 million total)Richard Jewell(2019)73%–?$2.56 million ($9.51 million total)Queen & Slim(2019)83%–$1.85 million ($36.59 million total)Black Christmas(2019)38%–$1.80 million ($7.24 million total)Ford v Ferrari(2019)92%–$1.80 million ($101.96 million total)

Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office onwith Nick Digilio as well as onwith Angela Miles and his.WGN RadioBusiness First AMMovie Madness Podcast

[box office figures via]Box Office Mojo

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