Who will be nominated?

(2020)89%
The Irishman(2019)96%
Jojo Rabbit(2019)79%
Joker(2019)69%
Knives Out(2019)97%
Little Women(2019)95%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%
Parasite (Gisaengchung)(2019)99%
Ford v Ferrari(2019)92%
Marriage Story(2019)95%

And why??After a?change in the Academy’s rules increased the number of possible nominees for Best Picture to 10, we had three consecutive years with nine nominees, but none with that many since then and never a year with the maximum possible 10. This year we predict that we shall finally see 10 nominees, with upstartKnives Outeffectively punching its ticket with a surprise Producers Guild Awards nom, the most coveted nomination of the “favored five” guilds (PGA, Writers Guild, Screen Actors Guild, British Academy of Film and Television Arts, Directors Guild). A nod?from all five?effectively guarantees a Best Picture nomination, and Best Picture frontrunners?The Irishman?andParasite?can thankfully boast such a distinction, while?Jojo Rabbit,Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and1917?each earned nominations from four of the five.

Best Actor In a Leading Role

Who?will?be nominated?

Adam Driver?–Antonio Banderas?–Joaquin Phoenix?–Leonardo DiCaprio –Taron Egerton –Marriage Story(2019)95%
Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria)(2019)97%
Joker(2019)69%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%
Rocketman(2019)89%

And why??Marriage Story?and?Joker?stars Adam Driver and Joaquin Phoenix are still no-brainer picks for the Oscars. On the other hand,?SNLalums Adam Sandler?(UncutGems)?and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name)?made strong cases late in the season, but Taron Egerton’s Golden Globe win, coupled with one of the smartest campaigns we have seen in recent years,?mean we give him the edge on over the funny guys as well as?Two Popeslead Jonathan Pryce. We also wouldn’t be surprised ifFord v Ferraristar Christian Bale popped in late with a surprise nomination given his Academy history and SAG nomination, but we’re not betting on it.

Best Actress?In A Leading Role

Who?will?be nominated?

Lupita Nyong’o –Charlize Theron?–Renee Zellweger –Cynthia?Erivo –Scarlett Johansson?–Us(2019)93%
Bombshell(2019)67%
Judy(2019)83%
Harriet(2019)73%
Marriage Story(2019)95%

And why??The recent BAFTA nominations that featured?double nominations for Scarlett Johansson and Margot Robbie – but not one nomination for an actress of color – could turn out to be good?news for bubble contenders Cynthia Erivo and Lupita Nyong’o. We think that the Academy membership, infused with nearly 3,000 new members, will be kinder to theHarrietandUs?leading ladies. We left Awkafina (The Farewell)?off our list, but don’t be surprised if she slips in, though we are betting the lack of individual award wins and nominations this season forLittle Womenstar Saoirse Ronan will see her left out come Monday morning.

Best Actor In a Supporting Role

Who?will?be nominated?

Joe Pecsi –Al Pacino??–Tom Hanks?–?Song Kang-ho?–?Brad Pitt?–The Irishman(2019)96%
The Irishman(2019)96%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood(2019)95%
Parasite (Gisaengchung)(2019)99%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%

And why??Okay, I guess you can sign us up for the “Bonghive” – the online fanbase of South KoreanParasite?director Bong Joon-ho. But in all seriousness, the director and his cast – especially Song Kang-ho – were the bells of the ball on Golden Globes weekend, with supporting actor frontrunner Brad Pitt making a point to greet them at the American Film Institute luncheon, and just about everyone we spoke to touting the film as their favorite of the year on the Golden Globes red carpet. This along with theParasite?ensemble’s?SAG ensemble nomination is why we are comfortable with?picking Kang-ho here for a surprise nomination.

Best?Actress In A Supporting Role

Who?will?be nominated?

Laura Dern?–Florence Pugh –Jennifer Lopez?–Zhao Shuzhen –Margot Robbie?–Marriage Story(2019)95%
Little Women(2019)95%
Hustlers(2019)87%
The Farewell(2019)98%
Bombshell(2019)67%

And why??‘s flawless work as Nai Nai in?The Farewellwas not recognized by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association last week, but we are betting ourlovable-lied-to-grandmawill still pull out the Oscar nom. And with the most Supporting Actress wins on our, the once-thought-to-be-a-longshot nomination of Jennifer Lopez?looks set to become a reality.Zhao ShuzhenAwards Leaderboard

Who will be nominated?

Missing Link(2019)89%
Frozen II(2019)77%
Toy Story 4(2019)97%
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World(2019)90%
I Lost My Body(2019)97%

And why?In a pretty straightforward category,?Toy Story 4, Frozen II,andHow to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World?have been consistent picks by guilds and critics all year long, with Golden Globe winnerMissing Linkand Netflix adult animation dramaI Lost My Bodyrounding out the group. The only possible surprise?nominee we?see potentially getting a slot is?Klaus, Netflix’s other offering. But of the two Netflix films,?I Lost My Bodyhas the better track record on ourwith over 10 wins so far.Awards Leaderboard

Best?Cinematography

Who will be nominated?

(2020)89%
The Lighthouse(2019)92%
The Irishman(2019)96%
Jojo Rabbit(2019)79%
Joker(2019)69%

And why??This is the only nomination?we can see for indie favoriteThe Lighthouse,?which is unfortunate, as this category is just a group of the most likely candidates set to lose to iconic cinematographer Roger Deakins, whose “one-shot” war drama?1917?is a lock come?February. Oh well, at least the parties are fun and booze is free.

Best?Costume Design?

Who will be nominated?

Downton Abbey(2019)84%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%
Little Women(2019)95%
Dolemite Is My Name(2019)97%
Rocketman(2019)89%

And why?As per usual, the best of the period pieces will dominate here, butBlack Panther?costume designer Ruth E. Carter has put on an incredible show this campaign season and has garnered?a ton of wins so far for the Eddie Murphy comedyDolemite Is My Name,?placing her in the frontrunner’s chair. And have you seen the intricate costumes Elton John sported over the years, recreated forRocketman? That alone putsRocketmanin contention come nominations morning, with the best shot?of unseating Carter when awards are handed out next month.

Best?Makeup And Hairstyling

Who?will?be nominated?

Bombshell(2019)67%
Rocketman(2019)89%
Judy(2019)83%
Dolemite Is My Name(2019)97%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%

And why?The Academy’s expansion of this category from three to five nominees in 2018 places many pundits (including us) at a disadvantage, so we are less confident in our picks outside ofBombshell,Rocketman, andJudy.?But the Oscars crafts presentation forJokerwas much talked about due to star Joaquin Phoenix’s notorious behavior, which will stick in voters’ minds, and we’re betting the larger-than-life wigs and Afros fromDolemite Is My Namewill place its Hair and Makeup team in contention as well.

Best Directing

Who?will?be nominated?

Bong Joon-ho?–Martin Scorsese?–Taika Waititi –Quentin Tarantino?–?Sam Mendes?–Parasite (Gisaengchung)(2019)99%
The Irishman(2019)96%
Jojo Rabbit(2019)79%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%
(2020)89%

And why??Taika Waititi’s surprise but welcomed DGA nom safely secured his spot here. We have heard rumblings from pundits of a late-season Safdie Brothers surge for theirUncutGems,?and Greta Gerwig is still the most likely candidate for a female directing?nomination forLittle Women. However, with?no nominations outside of the Critics’ Choice Awards,?Little Womenand Gerwig’s chances are fading.

Who will be nominated?

?Apollo 11(2019)99%
For Sama(2019)99%
Honeyland(2019)99%
American Factory(2019)97%
Maiden(2019)98%

And why??For Sama,?the quiet Syrian war tale, is the film that non-fiction cinephiles have been buzzing about since it won Best Documentary at the Cannes Film Festival. Meanwhile, IMAX hit?Apollo 11?has followed the same playbook that led to Oscar gold for last year’s category winner, the edge-of-your-seat nail-biter?Free Solo. The rest are all strong contenders, too, but look for?Edge of Democracy?or the quiet-yet-heartwarming?Biggest Little Farm?as possible spoilers.

Who will be nominated?

?Atlantics(2019)95%
Parasite (Gisaengchung)(2019)99%
Les Misérables(2020)85%
Honeyland(2019)99%
Pain and Glory (Dolor y gloria)(2019)97%

And why?We shall forever lament that the Certified Fresh?Portrait Of A Lady On Firewas not selected by France as its entry for Best International Feature Film, but it’s of little consolation as these again are just the films that will likely lose toParasite.

Who will be nominated?

Thomas Newman –Hildur Guenadóttir –?Alexandre Desplat –Randy Newman –Micheal Abels?–(2020)89%
Joker(2019)69%
Little Women(2019)95%
Marriage Story(2019)95%
Us(2019)93%

And why?Joker,Marriage Story,1917, andLittle Women?have been winning consistent accolades for their music this awards season, so we’re thinking they’re a lock. For the fifth and more unpredictable slot, we’re?thinking?a genre score will slide in. But rather than go with past Oscar winners Alan Silvestri (Avengers: Endgame) or John Williams (Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker), we have?gone with the risky bet of Micheal Abels for?Us.?It’s a bold choice?to bet against the most-nominated composer in Academy history – that would be Williams – but the lukewarm reaction toStar Wars: The Rise of Skywalkerand Abels’ brilliant hip-hop orchestrations are enough for us to give the horror hit the edge.

Who will be nominated?

“Spirit” –“(I Am Gonna) Love Me Again” –?“Stand Up” –“Into The Unknown” –“I’m Standing With You”?–The Lion King(2019)53%
Rocketman(2019)89%
Harriet(2019)73%
Frozen II(2019)77%
Breakthrough(2019)61%

And why?Beyoncé, Elton John, the most storied female song composer in history (Dianne Warren, who penned “I’m Standing With You”), and?an EGOT winner (Frozen?II?co-composer?Robert Lopez) will secure the four locked nominations. And for a fifth slot??Tony-winner and EGOT hopeful Cynthia Erivo performed “Stand Up” fromHarrietat every opportunity afforded her?this campaign season, and we’re comfortable?putting that song in the?open slot ahead of Pharrell Williams’ “Letter to my Godfather” from the Netflix documentaryThe Black Godfatheror?the new song for Princess Jasmine in the live-actionAladdin, “Speechless.”

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Who will be nominated?

Jojo Rabbit(2019)79%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood(2019)95%
Joker(2019)69%
The Irishman(2019)96%
Little Women(2019)95%

And why?The Writers Guild of America’s nominations are the most accurate indicator of Oscar screenplay?nominations, with over 85% of past Oscar nominees?also having been nominated by the group. This is why we made a carbon copy of their noms for our predictions here. We are also cautious, however, not to dismiss?TwoPopes’ chances to beat out the Mr. Roger’s tale,?A Beautiful Day in Neighborhood, though?we are betting writers Micah Fitzerman-Blue’s and Noah Harpster’s WGA nomination will give them the slight advantage.

Best?Writing (Original Screenplay)

Who will be nominated?

The Farewell(2019)98%
Knives Out(2019)97%
Once Upon a Time In Hollywood(2019)85%
Parasite (Gisaengchung)(2019)99%
Marriage Story(2019)95%

And why?Here?is where we think we will finally see some love for Lulu Wang’sThe Farewell.?This, unfortunately, is often what happens to promising female writer/directors – no love for directing and a consolation nom here. Many will scratch their head at our omission ofOnce Upon A Time In Hollywood, but we’re basing?this in part on the WGA nominations?and because some feel?director Quentin Tarantino did himself no favors with his Golden Globes acceptance speech, which could be seen as boastful.1917?and?Parasite?are still our number 1 and 2 picks to win the top prize of?Best Picture, and no film has won that award in?Oscars history without a screenwriting nomination. This year won’t be?any different.

The 2020 Oscar nominations are announced Monday, January 13, at 8am ET / 5am PT. Check back at Rotten Tomatoes to see who gets a nod.?

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